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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1, shrink-to-fit=no">
<meta name="description" content="Analysis of refugee migration patterns to create useful insights for aid organizations.">
<script src="vendor/jquery-3.3.1.slim.min.js"></script>
<script src="vendor/popper.min.js"></script>
<script src="vendor/bootstrap-4.3.1-dist/js/bootstrap.min.js"></script>
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<script src="vendor/chroma-1.3.5.min.js"></script>
<script src="src/js/tooltip.js"></script>
<script src="src/js/main.js"></script>
<script src="src/js/matrix.js"></script>
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<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="src/css/scatter.css">
<title>Refugee Migration Patterns</title>
</head>
<body>
<div class="welcome">
<div class="box center col-12">
<h1>Analysis of Refugee Migration Patterns</h1>
<h4>Insights for Aid Organizations and Policy Makers</h4>
<div class="introduction">
<p>
Worldwide, more than 68 million people are forcibly displaced.<br>
About 40 million of them are internally displaced, 25 million are refugees and 3 million are asylum-seekers.<br>
Source: <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/figures-at-a-glance.html">UNHCR</a>
</p>
<p>
This project analyzes data on migration patterns of persons of concern. Our aim is to create new insights that are useful for aid organizations and policy makers alike.
</p>
</div>
<div class='icon-scroll'></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="container-fluid">
<div class="row">
<div class="map-column col-12 col-lg-6">
<div id="slider">
<div class="year-selection">
<label for="year-selector"><b>Year:</b> </label><span id="selected-year"></span>
<input type="range" class="custom-range" min="2008" max="2016" id="year-selector" onchange="refresh_year(this.value)">
</div>
<div class="threshold-selection">
<label for="threshold-selector"><b>Threshold:</b> </label><span id="selected-threshold"></span>
<input type="range" class="custom-range" min="0" max="0.0005" step="0.00005" id="threshold-selector">
</div>
</div>
<div id="map"></div>
</div>
<div class="analysis-column col-12 col-lg-6">
<div id="carouselIndicators" class="carousel slide" data-ride="carousel" data-interval="false">
<ol class="carousel-indicators">
<li data-target="#carouselIndicators" data-slide-to="0" class="active"></li>
<li data-target="#carouselIndicators" data-slide-to="1"></li>
<li data-target="#carouselIndicators" data-slide-to="2"></li>
<li data-target="#carouselIndicators" data-slide-to="3"></li>
<li data-target="#carouselIndicators" data-slide-to="4"></li>
<li data-target="#carouselIndicators" data-slide-to="5"></li>
<li data-target="#carouselIndicators" data-slide-to="6"></li>
<li data-target="#carouselIndicators" data-slide-to="7"></li>
<li data-target="#carouselIndicators" data-slide-to="8"></li>
<li data-target="#carouselIndicators" data-slide-to="9"></li>
<li data-target="#carouselIndicators" data-slide-to="10"></li>
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<li data-target="#carouselIndicators" data-slide-to="13"></li>
<li data-target="#carouselIndicators" data-slide-to="14"></li>
</ol>
<div class="carousel-inner">
<div class="carousel-item active">
<h4>Summary</h4>
<p>
<b>Asylum-Seeker: </b> A person seeking international protection. Once this protection is granted, the person is recognized as a refugee.</br>
<b>Refugee: </b> A person who had to flee their home country due to persecution.<br/>
Source: <a href="https://www.amnesty.org.au/refugee-and-an-asylum-seeker-difference/">Amnesty International</a></br>
If not otherwise specified, the analyses show the movement of refugees based on <a href="http://popstats.unhcr.org/en/time_series">UNHCR data</a>.
</p>
<p>
In our analysis of refugee migration patterns, we collected data and represented it as a network that you can see on the map. Countries are connected if a sufficiently high number of people flee from one country to another. You can change the threshold for "sufficiently high" with the threshold slider. Similarly, you can change the year you want to look at.
</p>
<p>
We obtained values from network analysis for each country over time, such as centrality measures and network constraints, and combined with index values to use as features to train a prediction model. Without tuning, our time series model predicts with approximately 30% MAPE.
</p>
<p>
The countries are colored according to their Fragile States Index where red indicates a high fragility and blue represents stability.
If you hover on countries, you can see their Human Development Index (HDI) value (and rank) as well as their Fragile States Index (FSI) value (and rank).
</p>
<p>
Use the arrows at the top to look at different analyses.
</p>
</div>
<div class="carousel-item">
<h3>Degree Distribution</h3>
<p>
The degree distribution shows the probabilty with which a randomly picked country has a specific indegree (outdegree).
As degrees are not continuous, they are binned.
</p>
<img id="degree_plot" class="d-block w-100" src="src/media/2008_degree_distribution.png" alt="Degree Distribution plots" style="object-fit: contain">
</div>
<div class="carousel-item">
<h3>Power Law</h3>
<p>
The plot shows us the probability with which a chosen country has more than a specific number x refugees coming in (leaving). A power law distribution would mean that the y-value changes proportional to the x-value. By using the logarithmic values on both, we should get a straight line. This is not the case here as you can see in the plot.
</p>
<img id="power_plot" class="d-block w-100 contain" src="src/media/2008_powerlaw.png" alt="Powerlaw Plots for Number of Refugees">
</div>
<div class="carousel-item" style="overflow: visible;">
<h4>Correlation Matrix</h4>
<p>
The correlation matrix allows you to see between which measures there is a positive or negative correlation.
</p>
<div id="matrix_legend"></div>
</br>
</br>
</br>
<div id="matrix_grid"></div>
</div>
<div class="carousel-item">
<h4>Eigenvector Centrality - Closeness Centrality</h4>
<p>
There is a visible correlation between the measures eigenvector centrality and closeness centrality. This is not surprising as both are centrality measures.
</p>
<div id="scatter_first" class="contain"></div>
</br>
<div id="scatter_second" class="contain"></div>
</div>
<div class="carousel-item">
<h4>HDI - Indegree Centrality</h4>
<p>
As we can see the HDI correlates with the indegree centrality. As the HDI measures long-term development of countries, it is not surprising to see that countries with a high HDI value get refugees from a lot of different countries.
</p>
<svg class="plot" id="hdi-indegree-centrality"></svg>
</div>
<div class="carousel-item">
<h4>FSI - Indegree Centrality</h4>
<p>
Similarly to the HDI, it is not surprising that stable countries, i.e. countries with a low FSI, host refugees from many different countries.
</p>
<svg class="plot" id="fgi-indegree-centrality"></svg>
</div>
<div class="carousel-item">
<h4>HDI - Outdegree Centrality</h4>
<p>
One might expect a similar correlation between HDI and outdegree centrality. HDI, however, mostly measures long-term development, e.g. the life expectancy. Short-term developments such as the outbreak of a war are not necessarily visible in the HDI which explains large numbers of refugees for countries with fairly high HDI values.
</p>
<svg class="plot" id="hdi-outdegree-centrality"></svg>
</div>
<div class="carousel-item">
<h4>FSI - Outdegree Centrality</h4>
<p>
The FSI takes questions specific to refugees and IDPs into account, so that we can also see a correlation when we look at the outdegree.
</p>
<svg class="plot" id="fgi-outdegree-centrality"></svg>
</div>
<div class="carousel-item">
<h4>HDI - Number of Refugees (Out)</h4>
<svg class="plot" id="hdi-refugees-out"></svg>
</div>
<div class="carousel-item">
<h4>HDI - Number of Asylum-Seekers (Out)</h4>
<svg class="plot" id="hdi-asylum-out"></svg>
</div>
<div class="carousel-item">
<h4>HDI - Number of Asylum-Seekers + Refugees (Out)</h4>
<svg class="plot" id="hdi-asylum-refugees-out"></svg>
</div>
<div class="carousel-item">
<h4>HDI - Number of Refugees (In)</h4>
<svg class="plot" id="hdi-refugees-in"></svg>
</div>
<div class="carousel-item">
<h4>HDI - Number of Asylum-Seekers (In)</h4>
<svg class="plot" id="hdi-asylum-in"></svg>
</div>
<div class="carousel-item">
<h4>HDI - Number of Asylum-Seekers + Refugees (In)</h4>
<svg class="plot" id="hdi-asylum-refugees-in"></svg>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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<span class="carousel-control-prev-icon" aria-hidden="true"></span>
<span class="sr-only">Previous</span>
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</a>
</div>
</div>
<div class="row">
<div class="footer center col-12">
<a href="https://courses.helsinki.fi/en/data16001/124845659">"Network Analysis"</a> at the University of Helsinki · <a href="https://github.com/hcorinna/refugee-migration-patterns">GitHub</a> · Made with ❤️ by <a href="https://github.com/karenhelsinki">Karen</a>, <a href="https://github.com/gorupria">Puru</a> and <a href="https://github.com/hcorinna">Corinna</a>
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</body>
</html>