This repository is created for information and datasets for my MSc thesis "Bioenergy Supply Chain Simulation and Improvement based on Thailand Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP)"
NB: source code .ipynb files are sometimes not readable on Github, Please download the files and open them in readable platform.
Alternative energy penetration has been growing over the past decade. Thailand, as well, has been aware of global warming and decreasing of fossil fuels reservoir problems. The country has developed and proclaimed the Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP) as a part of energy development plans to reduce energy-intensive, utilize more residue resources, and reduce Greenhouse gases emission. According to the AEDP, the country has achieved many target alternative energy consumptions. However, electricity generated from biomass and biogas; and bioethanol produced from biomass have not been accomplished. There are 398 MW of electricity and 0.75 ML/day of bioethanol production capacity Thailand requires to accomplish the AEDP. Hence, this study was conducted to identify the causes that make the AEDP has not been accomplished including the amount of biomass and energy production capacity needed and additionally provide some suggestions to improve the bioenergy supply chain.
Mathematical programming was performed to optimize the supply chain by Python PuLP for linear programming. Monthly profile of 77-province suppliers, 17 biomasses, 427 bioenergy plants with 5 different energy conversion technologies were considered. The result showed that Thailand currently has biomass resources to produce electricity from biomass for 2550.4 MW; electricity from biogas (from energy crops) for 35.65 MW; and bioethanol from molasses and cassava for 4.79 ML/day which can satisfy the AEDP bioethanol consumption target. Bottlenecks in the supply chain were improved by changing an objective function from minimizing total cost to minimize maximum inventory level. This makes the percentage of overall power plants operation increase by 24.13% and inventory utilization increase by 30.32%, though the total cost increases by 124.77 billion THB.
To accomplish all AEDP targets, more biomass and new power plants are needed. For additional biomass, the optimal result showed that growing additional 4.65 billion tons of sugarcane is able to produce sufficient energy to satisfy the AEDP, while 1,634.82 MW capacity biomass power plant and 51.8 MW capacity biogas power plant need to be installed at Saraburi province as well. Finally, we suggest that using high methane content fuel such as solid waste instead of agricultural biomass will reduce this additional biomass.