- Pleiades: http://ecoproyecta.es/invernadero-bioclimatico/
- Hidroleaf: Experimental greenhouse container developed by several companies in Murcia in conjunction with CEBAS-CESIC and DIIC-FIUM, saves up to 80% of water consumption compared to a traditional greenhouse.
- internal air temperature
- inside temperature of the pots
Additionally for the Pleiades greenhouse, a prediction system for the indoor air temperature has been developed, based on automatic statistical models
- auto.arima
- tbats
- snaive
- prophet
- nnetar
- comb (arithmetic mean of the predictions obtained with the previous models)
In order to improve this system, a brief study has been carried out to determine the number of days to be provided to each model in order to obtain a balance between accuracy and consumption of computational resources.
- Un-informed scenario: Only indoor temperature history is available
- Informed scenario: Historicals of the inner temperature are available. In addition, for the following variables, both the historical and the future values are available for 7 days:
- outside temperature
- solar radiation
- external relative humidity
After modifying the cross-validation algorithm proposed by Hyndman & Athanasopoulos, 2018 [Chapter 3.4] the following results were obtained after predicting the indoor temperature at 7 days (horizon forecast = 7, frequency = 30 min):
- Un-informed scenario (crossvalidation ex ante with last 196 days of 2018, 28 weeks)
MODEL | MAPE | RMSE | MAE | CC | DAYS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
tbats | 9.13 | 2.95 | 2.22 | 15052 | 15 |
comb | 9.61 | 3.06 | 2.31 | 140553 | 165 |
snaive | 10.30 | 3.44 | 2.53 | 1 | 1 |
prophet | 12.11 | 3.45 | 2.79 | 155 | 165 |
auto.arima | 10.71 | 3.53 | 2.70 | 119777 | 30 |
nnetar | 14.51 | 4.63 | 3.50 | 4166 | 106 |
- Informed scenario (crossvalidation ex-post with last 210 days of 2018, 30 weeks)
MODEL | MAPE | RMSE | MAE | CC | DAYS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
comb | 6.20 | 2.06 | 1.53 | 281475 | 150 |
prophet | 6.78 | 2.12 | 1.62 | 368 | 60 |
nnetar | 6.83 | 2.16 | 1.60 | 12568 | 60 |
auto.arima | 8.66 | 3.08 | 2.24 | 268538 | 150 |
snaive | 9.77 | 3.19 | 2.38 | 1 | 1 |
- An alarm is triggered (SNAIVE) if in a week the predicted temperature for broccoli crops exceeds the threshold 40 º C for 6 hours in a row.
NO ALARM | ALARM | |
---|---|---|
NO ALARM | TNR = 0.82 | FPR = 0.17 |
ALARM | FNR = 0 | TPR = 1 |
ACC = 0.89