By using dynamic panel models, I provide a macro-level understanding of the relationships between a country in conflict, not in conflict, and whether this affects the economic performance in the short and long-term.
This research, as the title suggests, aims to understand the relationship between countries in and not in a conflict, whether that is a civil war or a conflict with another country, and whether countries in a conflict are perform economically. I source the economic data from the World Bank and the conflict event data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program. I specifically look at the period between 1983-2023. The main research questions follows:
- Do countries that are actively in a war or conflict perform better economically than those that are not?
- How much does war and conflict affect the economic stability and performance of a country?
- Is it possible that institutional corruption and political instability is a major contributor to war and conflict in conjunction with economic performance?
- Is the modern historical context enough to explain war in a country and its economic performance?
- World Bank
- Uppsala Conflict Data Program
- Time period: 1983-2023
- War status - this is a binary variable across time for each country (0 = not in war for that given year, 1 = in war for that given year)
- Military expenditure - this variable is the expenditure on military as a percentage of GDP for each country at a given year
- GDP growth - this variable is the annual growth of GDP for each country at a given year
- GDP per capita - this variable is the gdp per capita (GDP / population) for each country at a given year
- Political Stability - this variable measures perceptions of the likelihood of political instability and/or politically-motivated violence ranged approximately between -2.5 and 2.5 for each country at a given year, where negative values