Indiana Covid-19 Forecast

One-week forecasting for Covid-19 cases, deaths, hospital occupancy, and ventilator availability in Indiana.

Data sources

Mobility trends from Apple
Mobility trends from Google
Time series data from Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University
2019 population & housing unit estimates from the US Census Bureau
2014—2018 American Community Surveys, 5-Year Data Profiles from the US Census Bureau
Building permits from the US Census Bureau
Household size by county from the US Census Bureau
Computer and internet use from the US Census Bureau
Indiana age and sex data from the US Census Bureau
Indiana county-wide Covid-19 testing, case, and death trends from the Indiana Data Hub
Indiana Covid-19 case demographics by county and district data from the Indiana Data Hub
Indiana Covid-19 deaths by age group data from the Indiana Data Hub
Indiana Covid-19 cases by school data from the Indiana Data Hub
Indiana bed availability by date from the Indiana Data Hub
Indiana prevention measures and reopening stages data from www.backontrack.in.gov

Usage

• General
• Python scripts
• Frontend scripts

General

make update-model
Update datasets and county-level models.

make update-frontend
Rebuild and deploy frontend.

make update
Update datasets, rebuild, and redeploy frontend.

make install-model-dependencies
Install dependencies for compiling new models.

make clean
Remove temp directories.

Python scripts

python3 scripts/model.py
Rebuild models.
Flags:

• -d
• --days
  • Number of days to forecast predictions for.
  • Default: 14
  • Type: int
• -C
• --county
  • Specific county to generate model for. Indiana generates state-level predictions, All generates predictions for all counties.
  • Default: Indiana
  • Type: str
• -D
• --train-dir
  • Output directory for model files.
  • Default: train/
  • Type: str
• -o
• --output-dir
  • Output directory for data files preformatted for the frontend.
  • Default: frontend/src/data/
  • Type: str
• -u
• --update-datasets
  • Update datasets.
  • Default: False
  • Type: bool
• -v
• --verbose
  • Use verbose console messages.
  • Default: False
  • Type: bool
• -P
• --plot
  • Plot predictions for model being generated.
  • Default: False
  • Type: bool
• -s
• --show-status
  • Show execution status when fetching datasets and generating predictions.
  • Default: False
  • Type: bool

Frontend scripts

yarn serve
Host a development server at localhost:3000/.

yarn build
Build production bundle to frontend/build.

yarn deploy
Build and deploy to GitHub Pages.